Coronavirus, is it slowing?

Mar 27, 2010
90
14
8
Florida
Well this is surprising as it looks like its flattening out and we may soon over the 'hump' with this thing.
"Dow jumps over 1,000 points as coronavirus deaths slow in hotspots"...
https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/dow-jumps-1082-points-as-coronavirus-deaths-slow-in-hotspots/


"STOCK MARKET TODAY
Dow Jones Today, Stocks Spike As Coronavirus Slows; Inphi, Microchip Stir Chip Rally"

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-futures-rise-coronavirus-slows-inphi-microchip-stir-chip-rally/
 
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Apr 23, 2019
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Atlanta
I've seen projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) suggesting that daily deaths in the US may reach a peak and decline by April 15. Total new cases show possible decline for the last two days. None of this guaranties a favorable result, but I'm glad to hear the market agrees there is a real possibility.

Please keep America in your prayers. I've told third-world people for years we were going to need them as missionaries to us. Let's hope more people have ears to hear, or the damage will be much worse than just another economic decline.
 

rtm3039

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Feb 5, 2019
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I've seen projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) suggesting that daily deaths in the US may reach a peak and decline by April 15. Total new cases show possible decline for the last two days. None of this guaranties a favorable result, but I'm glad to hear the market agrees there is a real possibility.

Please keep America in your prayers. I've told third-world people for years we were going to need them as missionaries to us. Let's hope more people have ears to hear, or the damage will be much worse than just another economic decline.
No one knows enough to know enough. I keep a close eye on the IHME model and we are headed to the peak of the graph; however, the peak is different for every state and every county. Using information from the CDC and the FL Department of Health, below are the graphs for the US, Florida and Miami-Dade County.

Part of the problem is that not all states report information on a timely basis. As an example, Florida reports stats twice a day (11:30am and 6:30pm). There are still 5.5 hours on any given day, when Florida reports nothing. Other states do it more often and some only once a day. In fact the IHME model was updated today, because that are now going to use the average of the prior three days as a more reliable method than waiting for states to report.

Also, let 's keep in mind that these numbers show people who have been tested, not people to have COVID19.

On the 6th, out local news were all kinds of happy reporting the drop in numbers for the 5th. On the 7th they looked a little silly. Not to mention that the guy doing the reporting is our weather guy and we all know they get it right around 50% :)

1586368919011.png
 
Feb 10, 2015
905
1,063
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Maryland
No one knows enough to know enough. I keep a close eye on the IHME model and we are headed to the peak of the graph; however, the peak is different for every state and every county. Using information from the CDC and the FL Department of Health, below are the graphs for the US, Florida and Miami-Dade County.

Part of the problem is that not all states report information on a timely basis. As an example, Florida reports stats twice a day (11:30am and 6:30pm). There are still 5.5 hours on any given day, when Florida reports nothing. Other states do it more often and some only once a day. In fact the IHME model was updated today, because that are now going to use the average of the prior three days as a more reliable method than waiting for states to report.

Also, let 's keep in mind that these numbers show people who have been tested, not people to have COVID19.

On the 6th, out local news were all kinds of happy reporting the drop in numbers for the 5th. On the 7th they looked a little silly. Not to mention that the guy doing the reporting is our weather guy and we all know they get it right around 50% :)

View attachment 4648
Yes, we really don't have enough info. One problem is we don't have the ability to run the kind of tests required. The "Gold Standard" for gathering health info is randomized blind testing combined with longitudinal tests of a smaller population. The inclusion of non symptomatic persons helps quantify the spread among apearantly healthy population.

As far as reporting by weather men, I used to work on a weather program for the FAA. I used to tell our meteorologists that if the computer programs I used to write were held to the same standards as far as being judged 'correct', my job would have been much easier.
 

rtm3039

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Feb 5, 2019
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Yes, we really don't have enough info. One problem is we don't have the ability to run the kind of tests required. The "Gold Standard" for gathering health info is randomized blind testing combined with longitudinal tests of a smaller population. The inclusion of non symptomatic persons helps quantify the spread among apparently healthy population.

As far as reporting by weather men, I used to work on a weather program for the FAA. I used to tell our meteorologists that if the computer programs I used to write were held to the same standards as far as being judged 'correct', my job would have been much easier.
We are actually in the middle of doing that here in Miami-Dade. The county and University of Miami have started a joint project. For the next four weeks, a total of 750 county residents (a week) will be selected at random. Each will be asked to answer a series of questions and that submit to being tested. This will be a blood test and not the standard swabbing. Aside from determining if the person is positive, it will also look to see if that person has the antibodies to indicate he/she had COVID19 and did not know it, or if some have a natural immunity.

Unfortunately, since involves drawing a drop of blood, this has to be voluntary and some people are pushing back at the idea.

Currently, at the state level, we have tested 144,570 with 15,455 (10.7%) positive. At the county level, we have tested 28,871, with 5,354 (18.5%) being positive. For a county of almost 2,496,435 million, 28,872 (1.2%) does not provide a clear picture or anything.

The issue is that, to be tested, you have to be symptomatic.
 
Mar 27, 2010
90
14
8
Florida
We are actually in the middle of doing that here in Miami-Dade. The county and University of Miami have started a joint project. For the next four weeks, a total of 750 county residents (a week) will be selected at random. Each will be asked to answer a series of questions and that submit to being tested. This will be a blood test and not the standard swabbing. Aside from determining if the person is positive, it will also look to see if that person has the antibodies to indicate he/she had COVID19 and did not know it, or if some have a natural immunity.

Unfortunately, since involves drawing a drop of blood, this has to be voluntary and some people are pushing back at the idea.

Currently, at the state level, we have tested 144,570 with 15,455 (10.7%) positive. At the county level, we have tested 28,871, with 5,354 (18.5%) being positive. For a county of almost 2,496,435 million, 28,872 (1.2%) does not provide a clear picture or anything.

The issue is that, to be tested, you have to be symptomatic.
No needle for me, ouch. I don't think that one is gonna fly. Will have to send out the medical teams and post them at Costco and Walmart, then you will get a drove of candidates...
 
Mar 27, 2010
90
14
8
Florida
Yes, we really don't have enough info. One problem is we don't have the ability to run the kind of tests required. The "Gold Standard" for gathering health info is randomized blind testing combined with longitudinal tests of a smaller population. The inclusion of non symptomatic persons helps quantify the spread among apearantly healthy population.

As far as reporting by weather men, I used to work on a weather program for the FAA. I used to tell our meteorologists that if the computer programs I used to write were held to the same standards as far as being judged 'correct', my job would have been much easier.
I think the doctors and nurses are doing more of triage than testing so we will have to wait till it slows down a bit.
 
Mar 27, 2010
90
14
8
Florida
No one knows enough to know enough. I keep a close eye on the IHME model and we are headed to the peak of the graph; however, the peak is different for every state and every county. Using information from the CDC and the FL Department of Health, below are the graphs for the US, Florida and Miami-Dade County.

Part of the problem is that not all states report information on a timely basis. As an example, Florida reports stats twice a day (11:30am and 6:30pm). There are still 5.5 hours on any given day, when Florida reports nothing. Other states do it more often and some only once a day. In fact the IHME model was updated today, because that are now going to use the average of the prior three days as a more reliable method than waiting for states to report.

Also, let 's keep in mind that these numbers show people who have been tested, not people to have COVID19.

On the 6th, out local news were all kinds of happy reporting the drop in numbers for the 5th. On the 7th they looked a little silly. Not to mention that the guy doing the reporting is our weather guy and we all know they get it right around 50% :)

View attachment 4648
I cant understand what caused the 'spike', we will have to see if any more, but overall its going down. They were going to open the beaches over here on Marco and voted to do it on Monday, but once the news spread everybody grabbed there towel and suntan lotion and they delayed it for a bit. I was up warming up the car...
 

rtm3039

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Feb 5, 2019
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What the models cannot do is project number of actual infected. The actual number may never be known, but according to a paper written by the University of Texas at Austin, “Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that one in ten cases are tested and reported.” (p. 1, Probability of current COVID-19 outbreaks in all US counties, The University of Texas at Austin, April 3, 2020). (https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/defaul...-risk-maps_counties_4.3.2020.pdf?m=1585958755)

When you look at test numbers here in Florida and my county (Miami-Dade), we have not even touched the surface. Florida has only tested 0.7% of the state’s population and Miami-Dade 1%:

Testing data.JPG

Here is the really scary part. Assuming that the positive/genitive percentage of 18.7% holds across the board, and if Miami-Dade tested all the people in the county, our Infected number would be 513,292 and not the 5,461 being reported. I guess this is the best argument for Social Distancing that can be made.

My concern is that we will come out of the caves prematurely and have to deal with a second spike, another shut down, and more daily TV briefings by Dr. Trump.

It still holds true that our total infected and dead from COVID19 is nothing, when compared to the impact of this year's flu; however, here we are. This is not, as some people feared, a second Spanish flu epidemic (1918); however, is this because it was never going to be or is it because 90% of Americans are at home? One thing is for sure, this all started with one 35 year old man who came home to Washington State after a vacation in China. If one guy can start it in January, another guy can re-started it in May.

Later,

rtm3039
 
Dec 19, 2014
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New Zealand
www.literatelibrarian.com
I think people are relying too much on computer model projections which are only as good as the programmers algorithims.
They never take into account variables. And there are many variables.

What people need to do is trust the Lord and not lean on their own understanding. I know its hard to do, when ppl derive comfort from numbers and facts. But this battle isn't carnal. It's spiritual.
 

rtm3039

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Senior Moderator
Feb 5, 2019
1,558
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Miami, FL
I think people are relying too much on computer model projections which are only as good as the programmers algorithims.
They never take into account variables. And there are many variables.

What people need to do is trust the Lord and not lean on their own understanding. I know its hard to do, when ppl derive comfort from numbers and facts. But this battle isn't carnal. It's spiritual.
Ho Lanolin, glad to see that you are well.

I must; however, disagree with you on almost all your points. At of right now, the mortality rate in the US is 3.5%. While we are 29.1% of the world's infected, we are only 17.7% of the dead. We are not looking great, but we are not dropping like flies (at least not yet).

Models are only as good as the data that populates it, not the "programmers algorithms." In the world of Data Mining and Predictive Analysis, algorithms are pretty standard and most can be found in Excel. In the analytical works, the old saying is "junk in, junk out."

There is no question that times like these make our faith an even more important aspect of our lives, but this is a carnal battle. I have not been stuck at home for three weeks, because my faith is weak, it's to minimize the possibility that I will contract COVID19. Social distancing, staying at home, and wearing a face covering are what gets us through this. We have had several pastors in our country claim that faith alone is what is needed and they have all pretty much been arrested.

I ask our Father for mercy, protection, forgiveness, and wisdom. Pretty sure that He leaves the rest of it to me. I am reminded of this joke:

A guy is in a flood and, after hearing the message to evaluate, crawls up to the roof of his house and starts to pray. A guy in a boat came by to help, but the guy said that God would help. A little while later, a guy in a helicopter hovered over the guy, who again said God would save him. Two days later, the man drowns. When he gets to heaven he asks God why He did not save him. God replied, "I sent you a message, I sent you a boat, and I sent you a helicopter. What else were you expecting?"

While I am unable to locate an appropriate scripture moment for this, God would consider us foolish for walking around as if nothing was going on; regardless of how strong your faith it.
 
Dec 19, 2014
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rtm you don't even read my post and are quick to jump to erroneous conclusions.

I suggest you take a step back and really pray about things.

We know the virus can pop up at anytime particularly in cooler weather, so nobody is complacent here thinking just cos numbers are down means it's been eradicated if we haven't been taking precautions.