How does it feel?
That's hard to explain. But there is a difference in the way it feels when God speak and when we fear or desire.
When people reacted badly to my words, I used to think, "If I just explain it they will understand and everything will be good." But that was my desire. At the same time I could feel something holding me back from speaking, but I resisted because I thought by explaining I would make everyone happy again. They holding back was God saying that person will only get angier because they were not open to listening.
Other times I would feel a prompting to to speak, but again I would resist because I thought what was in my mind to say would make them angry. Again, I discovered God was telling me "Seak, I have made them ready to hear."
Now that I can recognize the voice of God, I obey and things turn out well. Sometimes peaople still get mad, but I pray about it, trust God and wouldn't you know, they always seem to come back and say they thought about what I said and agree and they apologize for becoming angry!!!!
You need to look at the fruits of your speech and silence and think about what you experienced. Was something holding you back, but you went ahead one your own? Was something prompting you but you resisted out of fear?
Now consider how these "feelings" differed. Next time be aware of those "feelings" say a quick prayer in your head, then follow their lead and see what happens.
If this works better, I think you can safely say if is the Holy Spirit speaking to you to guide you. At least, that has been my experience.
Ginger